From purchases prompted by immigration and medications to emerging social commerce and AI shifts, there are multiple catalysts for change expected to impact consumer behaviour in 2025.

Below are five catalysts for change that NIQ believes will shape consumer behaviour in 2025 and beyond.

Changing face of omni retail and social commerce

Another global trend that will impact markets in Australia and New Zealand is the changing face of omni retail and social media commerce.

The rise of retail media networks is becoming a priority focus for brands of all sizes. By 2025, retail media ad spending is expected to represent over one-fifth of all digital ad spending globally.

Social commerce stands as another incredibly dynamic force in the changing face of omni retail. We’ve seen this demonstrated by TikTok’s success in China, with about 55% growth versus a year ago, and this impact is now spreading to other markets worldwide.

In Australia, one in four consumers would purchase via social commerce, and their behavior shows how social media is fundamentally shifting how shoppers discover, shop and interact with brands. Around 33% of consumers would search social media for product information before using traditional search engines, while 35% use it as their primary source for learning about new innovations.

The influence on purchasing decisions is particularly strong among younger demographics, with 44% of Gen Z and 40% of Millennials suggesting they would change brands based on influencer recommendations.

However, there are still barriers to overcome, with 60% of surveyed consumers expressing concerns about payment security on social media platforms, and 65% actively ignoring social media ads.

The intersection of retail and artificial intelligence

While there is still some work to be done for consumers to fully embrace AI integrations in their everyday purchases, the research reveals multiple lower-stakes AI involvements where shoppers seem much more open to tech-enabled experiences.

However, in many of these instances, the variance of acceptance by generation are quite stark.  

For example, nearly half of Gen Z and Millennials would use AI to automate or speed up their everyday shopping decisions (46% and 48% respectively), while just 34% of Gen X and only 20% of Boomers agree they would do the same.

Segmenting experiences or providing options to support older consumers to avoid frustration or mistrust will be key to transformations that expand and not cannibalise future growth potential for FMCG brands and manufacturers.

Hot commodity costs

NIQ also observed that in 2025 and beyond, consumers and manufacturers need to monitor shifting commodities prices to anticipate and react to peaks and valleys in consumer packaged goods (CPG) pricing.

The rise and fall of commodity prices is a hot topic around the world. It should be a focus for FMCG manufacturers because it brings risks, as we’ve seen recently with cocoa. In April of 2024, cocoa surged to a record high of over $12,000 per metric ton, amid forecasts of shortages and $8.7 billion in bets in cocoa futures from hedge funds.

Unlike a commodity like wheat – which was largely driven up by global conflict but has since leveled off due to an influx of freshly harvested crops – the issues facing cocoa may take much longer to resolve. Difficult weather conditions and disease have affected production in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa, and may take a full growing season to resolve.

Looking at potential CPG category adjacencies to some of the latest ‘hot-rising’ or ‘cooling’ commodities like cocoa (+128%) or wheat (-27%), we can already see the impact on NIQ-measured category sales and volumetric performance, as chocolate is struggling worldwide.

These insights were presented as part of NIQ’s ANZ Mid-Year Consumer Review: Guide to 2025 report. You can access the report for free by clicking here.

Marco Silva is director for customer success at NielsenIQ.